Hans van Zijst

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Professional nerd and grammar nazi, writes in Dutch and English. Can read some German, French and Spanish too. Learning русский.

Location:: Netherlands

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 18:36:57 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Impossible to know how true this claim is, but it would be fantastic if it was: #Putin allegedly only has money for ten days of war.

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038

#ukraine

Ukraine

show all 26 comments

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 18:54:00 +0100

Farhad A,

faab64@friendica.hubup.pro

There are so many videos of Russian tanks, trucks and other machines running out of diesel and asking locals for help, who put sugar in the diesel before giving it to the Russians causing their engines to break.

It is so unbelievably tragic to see all these young Russians who have no idea what they are doing being caught by Ukrainians or some even running away from their convoy.

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 19:19:50 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

If he'd screw up this invasion, not only would he be the laughing stock of the international community, his people at home would probably smell blood too.

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 19:52:49 +0100

Witcraft (Hubzilla)

witcraft@hubzilla.fediversum.de

And I do not think the NATO would give him a second chance - He might have sped up Ukraine to join the NATO, by trying to avoid it.

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 20:01:21 +0100

Isaac Kuo

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

I agree that we can't know how true this claim is, but what is certain is that the world has noticed how the Ukrainian people have not withered away in panic.

Anyone who has been following me for a while may have noticed I have been supportive of Ukraine against Putin, and Taiwan against the CCP, for a long time ... before it has suddenly gotten really trending.

We're in the same boat. It's a defense of democracy, against autocratic invaders who wish to destroy that democracy.

I'm sure the CCP has drawn up all sorts of contingencies in their military plans. Some grim and drawn out. Some rosy assuming the Taiwanese people wither away in panic. I know there are plans for a small airborne attack to take out the Taiwanese leadership and quickly install a puppet government (much like the plans described in this thread).

Here's hoping the CCP is watching, and placing those rosy plans in a garbage bin.

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 20:42:47 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

Putin might suddenly find himself a head shorter.

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 20:59:15 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

I know I'm not supposed to say this, but I hope that's what's going to happen

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 21:12:14 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

Least loss of life, best basis for building peace. Defo the best option.

"Sorry, our nutty little dictator got carried away, here's his head on a platter, can we just forget about the last three weeks?"

Sun, 27 Feb 2022 00:08:06 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

If Putin were, erm, "escorted out of the Kremlin", I think Navaly would be a candidate to succeed him.

Then again, I don't know much about Russian politics.

Sun, 27 Feb 2022 00:14:54 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Seeing how he has become the symbol of resistance against Putin, I think he would be an obvious choice.

Who would you expect to take over?

Sun, 27 Feb 2022 00:17:31 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

If Russia starts a nuclear war, all bets are off.

Sun, 27 Feb 2022 18:12:12 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

Putin is the head of the real government: The mafia. Whoever succeeds him will, purely by coincidence, ALSO be the head of the mafia.

Russia is not a nation, it is a hostage.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:40:55 +0100

Witcraft (Hubzilla)

witcraft@hubzilla.fediversum.de

Well, I just read in a news feed that the Gremlin of the Kremlin hired 400 Wagner mercenaries to go after Zelenskyy...

So, now the world's largest country has its enourmous scale army running out of gas, missiles not working, tanks busted, paratroopers shot down, and banging their heads against a brick wall, in general. So what do you do? Hire a commando of professional killers - What's next?

Not that the whole invasion was following any legitimate rules of engagement anyway, but the story goes absolutely harebrained, on all levels. This is a story line no sane author could have come up with...

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:43:36 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

This would be a great time to annihilate all the world's mercenary armies. I kid. Every time is a great time for that.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:55:56 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

I love the stories about Putin's army failing, being blocked and shot to pieces, but I wonder how much of it is actually true. It's obvious that things haven't gone the way Putin wanted or expected, but I think we (at least I) should be cautious in our optimism. I wouldn't be surprised if he conquers all of Ukraine anyway, even if it may take longer than expected of cause more death and destruction than calculated.

There's no real way back for him, he's not the kind of guy to admit he screwed up. That's not what they taught him in KGB-class. I think he'd rather take the whole world down with him in his fall than to admit he fucked up.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:25:59 +0100

Isaac Kuo

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

@Hans van Zijst I also have the same gut instint - to wonder how much is actually true. It's so tempting to believe what one wishes to hear.

But the thing I keep coming back to is ... Kyiv is still standing. So is every other major city ... including Mariupol, which is between rebel territory and Crimea.

That just can't be consistent with Putin's army being in good shape.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:34:51 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

Trust but verify.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:35:56 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

@Isaac Kuo Agree, and time isn't on his side. The longer this war lasts, the bigger the chance that his own people will rise up and oust him. That's what I'm hoping for, rather today than tomorrow.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:42:54 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

@Andreas Geisler

Trust but verify.

Trusting is dangerous, @Isaac Kuo already said it's tempting to believe what you want to be true. Verifying is next to impossible, even if you follow several major news outlets from all over the world.

I have to accept that I can't tell what's true and what's not (or what's half true): only those things that are confirmed by both Russia and the rest of the world can be accepted as "the truth"...

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:53:28 +0100

Witcraft (Hubzilla)

witcraft@hubzilla.fediversum.de

There were enough confirmations of the US that the Kremlin did not acknowledge that I would believe Zelenskyy more than Putin (although the truth is the first victim if a war).

But I agree that it is unlikely for Ukraine to really defeat Russia, but they could hang on long enough for other events to happen. Maybe Putin cannot go reverse gear, but Russia could, once they wake up about his state of mind, or once the sanctions become more tangible.

Anyway, Putin has already made Ukraine immortal as a symbol and the subject that made a large part of the world unite and join efforts for humanity although they all had to pay something for it.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 18:04:20 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Yup, if this war gets bad enough for the rich kleptocrat circle around Putin, some might save their wealth by getting rid of Putin. "Tu quoque, Brute?"

@Paul Ferguson posted a nice link to a Twitter thread that point that out:

https://nitter.net/ggatehouse/status/1498270828844273669

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 18:07:43 +0100

Isaac Kuo

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

@Witcraft My first gut feeling is to agree that it is unlikely for Ukraine to really defeat Russia, but ... when I think about it more carefully, it's possible.

One very plausible theory, given what we've seen so far, is that the Russian military is EXTREMELY low on fuel. The decision to send in so few forces and to inadequately pound the Ukrainians from the air makes sense if there's just not enough fuel to go around. The sanctions will make it very difficult for the Russians to improve their fuel situation.

So, let's imagine the Russian forces basically run out of fuel completely in, say, a couple weeks. What happens then?

The Ukrainian forces have fuel and other supplies pouring in. This includes fuel for aircraft and drones, as well as more of these Turkish made drones that they've been doing well with.

In those circumstances, the Ukrainian forces could do more than just slow down the Russians (who are, at this point, reduced to walking around on foot ... starving). They could seriously advance and push back the Russian forces. They could even enter Crimea.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 19:28:56 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

"Trust but verify" is a slogan that Reagan supposedly had a speech coach teach him in Russian.

The gist of it is to not believe anything that hasn't been verified by one's own spy planes.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 19:32:07 +0100

Andreas Geisler

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

@Isaac Kuo Ukraine being lured into attacking Crimea is one of those Soviet-era stratagems we should be aware of. It would be extremely dangerous, and could galvanize Russian support for the war, and also flip the "home team advantage" of defensive warfare on its head.

OTOH, taking a large number of Russian troops captive and then demand the Crimea in negotiations is a different kettle of fish.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 23:07:47 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Here we go: #Navalny movement calls for disobedience.

Breakingviews - Navalny's supporters call for civil disobedience against Ukraine war

The movement of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny called on Monday for a campaign of civil disobedience to protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

#Ukraine

Tue, 01 Mar 2022 13:53:55 +0100

Witcraft (Hubzilla)

witcraft@hubzilla.fediversum.de

@Isaac Ji Kuo
Yeah, I hope this, too, but Russia has fossils, and given enough time, people and material enough to to throw at them, even if ineffectively and costly - but reason has been out of the game here, for long. The convoy approaching Zelenskyy is worrying me. I wish them all well, they have creative, cooperative ideas to invite Russians to butcher their "people of brothers". But it would be good if somebody in Russia would be putting the switch back from "seek and destroy" to "where will out place be, in the world, and in or own people"?

Tue, 01 Mar 2022 14:45:53 +0100

Isaac Kuo

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

Yes, the mere fact that they can deploy this massive convoy, without it running out of fuel, seems to rule out that admittedly wishful possibility.

Even if the initial phase of the was was disastrously poorly planned and executed, it's entirely possible for Russia to get their act together and make the second push as powerful and unstoppable as we all feared the first push would be.