Hans van Zijst

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Professional nerd and grammar nazi, writes in Dutch and English. Can read some German, French and Spanish too. Learning русский.

Location:: Netherlands

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:38:07 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

€25 says no ceasefire will be reached.

Reuters World News wrote the following post Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:34:00 +0100

Ukraine ceasefire talks begin http://reut.rs/3It1Y67

[:tw: https://tweets.newsbots.eu/ReutersWorld/status/1498304565225136134 — #bot]

show all 8 comments

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:45:11 +0100

Adam Hunt

gander22h@diasp.org

My guess is Putin is just stalling.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 15:57:40 +0100

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

@Adam Hunt Time isn't on Putin's side. Every hour; every day ... more weapons and supplies pour into Ukraine, and more people are getting armed.

I had heard that Putin ordered taking Kyiv by Monday no matter what ... that's clearly hasn't happened. But the push seems to be to encircle Kyiv and take Kharkiv by Monday. Neither of these objectives have been achieved.

But assuming they had been achieved, the obvious point would have been to intimidate the Ukrainians during the talks on Monday. The idea is to try to enter peace negotiations from a position of threatening strength. If the enemy is afraid of what you can do, the enemy will be more likely to offer favorable peace terms.

As it is, though, the Ukrainian delegation has little incentive to offer up enough for Putin to save face. Conversely, though, the Ukrainians continue to slowly lose ground so it's not like they're in a position of imposing threatening strength either. (Imagine, for example, if Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the Belarus border and were pushing into Crimea.)

So yeah ... neither side is likely to offer the sort of concessions the other side wants. I won't be taking up that 25 Euros bet.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:00:11 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

I think Ukraine could put some demands on the table: piss off from our country, including Crimea.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:37:38 +0100

isaackuo@diaspora.glasswings.com

Well sure, they could put up those demands as a start of haggling ... no chance of the Russian side accepting it, of course.

My most optimistic possible outcome - the Ukrainians concede Donbas in exchange for ending the war. No terms mentioning NATO or neutrality at all. This might be considered just enough of a fig leaf concession for Putin to save face. At the same time, it conveniently rids Zelenskyy of the on-going internal conflict that has been an obstacle to NATO membership.

Shortly after the end of the war, Ukraine is welcomed into NATO and the EU. This is, of course, an extreme humiliation for Putin. But with everything falling apart around Putin, it may be the best he can get if he's smart.

(No, I do not think Putin is likely to accept these terms right now.)

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 16:48:22 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

@Isaac Kuo

Shortly after the end of the war, Ukraine is welcomed into NATO and the EU.

Not so sure about that. Saying it is one thing, but following all procedures (or finding some legal way around them) is another. I don't think Ukraine will be an EU member within a year from now, to be honest.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:40:00 +0100

andreas_geisler@diaspora.glasswings.com

So long as the peace talks are not a Red Wedding...

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 17:49:11 +0100

Hans van Zijst

hans@social.woefdram.nl

Well, when I heard about Putin's "invitation" for talks on Belarussian soil, I couldn't help but think of the first scenes of Braveheart... Zelenskyy obviously thought the same and wisely decided not to go there himself, but send a delegation.

Mon, 28 Feb 2022 19:37:43 +0100

Martijn Vos

mcv@pluspora.com

If Putin's options are lose, peace or escalation, surely peace is the best option. But I don't know if he still thinks clearly to see it that way.

For peace I see two reasonable options: either Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine accepts that but can do whatever it wants, or Ukraine gets its land back, but is forced to remain neutral for 30 years or so (but that would require some pretty hard guarantees from the Russians and NATO, probably). Neither side gets everything they want, but this way everybody gets something at least.